The world's demand for automotive aluminum

The world's demand for automotive aluminum

According to CM GROUP's analysis, the amount of aluminum used in traditional oil vehicles and new energy vehicles in 2021 was 145kg and 173kg, respectively, and with the continuous promotion of lightweight strategies, it is expected that the CAGR of 2021-2025 will reach 5% and 7%, respectively, to 180kg and 227kg in 2025. Combined with the global vehicle sales estimate, it is estimated that the global automotive aluminum volume will be about 11.77 million tons in 2021, and the demand CAGR will reach 9% from 2021 to 2025, of which the CAGR of aluminum for oil vehicles and aluminum for new energy vehicles will reach 4% and 40%, respectively. In addition, the proportion of aluminum used in new energy vehicles has rapidly increased from 9% in 2021 to 26%.

From the perspective of automotive aluminum structure, according to DuckerFrontier analysis, the growth of rolled aluminum strip foil in North America from 2022 to 2026 is the most prominent, with a CAGR of 5% for aluminum for bicycles, followed by extruded profiles and forged aluminum, both with a CAGR of 3%, and finally die-cast parts, with a CAGR of about 1%.

Automotive aluminum track sequencing: thermite > heat-free alloy> automotive sheet> battery foil> extruded >electrode foil

Based on aluminum's excellent lightweight structural properties, as well as outstanding electrical and thermal conductivity, it has obtained important industrial applications in the field of lightweight and new energy electrical and thermal conductivity, such as four doors and two covers of automotive structural parts, battery foil, aluminum heat transfer materials, die-casting integrated heat-free alloys, extruded battery trays, etc., which are expected to open up broad growth space in the future. From the perspective of the specific track of automotive aluminum, the elasticity of demand under the blessing of lightweight and new energy is the premise to support the prosperity of the track; However, the medium and long-term automotive aluminum competition barriers and pattern are the key to consolidating the sustainability of profits.